IMF Admits Nigerians Are Suffering Despite 4.2% Growth Upgrade

​The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.2 percent, while projecting growth of 4.3 percent in 2027.

​The projections were released on Tuesday in Bangkok, Thailand, during the presentation of the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook titled “Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices,” by IMF Director of Research Silvana Tenreyro. The revision represents a 0.1 percentage point increase from previous estimates for 2026, while the 2027 projection remains unchanged.

​However, beneath the headline expansion, the multilateral institution delivered a sober assessment of Nigeria’s domestic reality, urging policymakers to look beyond positive indicators and urgently deploy direct cash transfers to vulnerable citizens grappling with severe cost-of-living pressures.

​The IMF attributed Nigeria’s improved growth trajectory to macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade driven by energy exports. Yet it cautioned that spiralling costs for basic commodities continue to push more households into extreme poverty.

​“Nigeria is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favorable terms-of-trade effects, though higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity,” the report stated.

​The outlook comes as Nigeria marks three years of wide-ranging fiscal and monetary adjustments, including the removal of petrol subsidies and exchange rate unification. While the reforms have garnered approval from global lenders, they have sharply weakened consumer purchasing power and accelerated domestic inflation.

​Speaking during a press briefing, Deniz Igan, Division Chief in the IMF Research Department, acknowledged the disconnect between macroeconomic figures and the living conditions of ordinary Nigerians, calling for immediate and targeted social safety nets.

​“What we are advocating for is for policymakers to balance the near-term needs of the population, including food security and energy security, given that the prices of food and energy are increasing disproportionately, while also keeping in mind medium-term stability,” Igan said.

​“While growth held up in Nigeria, given that it is an energy exporter, power pressures are still very high, and we are mindful that the population is suffering, especially when it comes to food security, which also faces risks from El Niño. In that environment, what we are advocating for is cash transfers and targeted, temporary income support for the most vulnerable households in Nigeria. That can alleviate high poverty and help ensure food security.”

​The fund’s call for direct cash interventions arrives amid criticism from opposition figures, including Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who have pressured the Federal Government to cushion the impact of higher energy costs on the population.

​On the global front, the IMF projects worldwide economic activity to expand by 3.1 percent in 2026 before rising to 3.4 percent in 2027, as geopolitical tensions and commodity price volatility continue to test global financial resilience.